Lille 0-4 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Nice travel to Stade Pierre-Mauroy to take on Lille. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 August 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nice — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lille 1.00 PPG, Nice 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 0.81 xG and Nice 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.984 / defence 1.150 | Nice attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.715 / away 1.462. Data: 1 Lille games / 1 Nice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lille 18% | Draw 34% | Nice 48%. Fair-value odds: Lille 5.56 | Draw 2.94 | Nice 2.08. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 18% | Draw 34% | Nice 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Lille 0.81 / Nice 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.984 / def 1.150 | Nice attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.715 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Nice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Nice xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Nice kick off?
Lille vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Nice?
Lille 0 - 4 Nice.
Where is Lille vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Nice part of?
Lille vs Nice is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 18% chance of winning, Nice a 48% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lille and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Nice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lille and Nice in?
Lille (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 D. Nice (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (0.98) and Nice's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
18%
5.70
34%
2.90
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Lille xG
Total xG
2.24
1.43
Nice xG
5.70
18%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
45%
2.25
Win to Nil
4%
23.79
21%
4.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lille and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Lille and 1.43 for Nice, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Lille have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.00 PPG, Nice on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Lille's scoring rate against Nice's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Nice in 0%.
Defensively: Nice in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Nice in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Nice have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Lille or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Nice in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Nice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Nice won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lille's record when hosting Nice specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lille
4
Draws
4
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 2, Nice have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Lille 0-0 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Lille's recent matches and 0% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Lille's recent games and 0% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Nice tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nice in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nice run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Lille.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Lille 0-4 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 0.81 xG and Nice 1.43 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Lille fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Nice outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Nice attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lille 18% | Draw 34% | Nice 48%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 100%, Nice 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.00 PPG, Nice 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Lille managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice scored 4 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.