Le Havre 0-0 Lens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Le Havre face Lens.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Le Havre welcome Lens to Stade Océane in Ligue 1 (matchday 9). Kick-off is Friday 20 October 2023 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Le Havre have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Le Havre's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lens stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lens's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Le Havre) versus 1.40 (Lens). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Lens in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 39% versus Lens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 33% | Lens 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.36 xG and Lens 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.885 / defence 1.095 | Lens attack 0.987 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.241. Data: built from Le Havre's last 8 games and Lens's last 46.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 29% | Lens 35%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.78 | Draw 3.47 | Lens 2.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Le Havre 30% (last 10 home games) | Lens 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lens | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 29% | Lens 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Le Havre 1.36 / Lens 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.885 / def 1.095 | Lens attack 0.987 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Lens xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Lens FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Lens kick off?
Le Havre vs Lens kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 20 October 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Lens?
Le Havre 0 - 0 Lens.
Where is Le Havre vs Lens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lens part of?
Le Havre vs Lens is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 9) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lens?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 36% chance of winning, Lens a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lens?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Le Havre and Lens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Le Havre vs Lens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Lens's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Lens's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 8 games and Lens's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
36%
2.78
29%
3.47
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.70
1.34
Lens xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Lens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lens expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.34 for Lens, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 46 games, going 22W 18D 6L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Lens sit at 2.00 PPG from 46 outings (27W 11D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.83 PPG, Lens on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 13W 7D 3L across their last 23 home games, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lens have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 23 away games (9W 8D 6L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lens's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Lens are on 1.65 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Lens
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Lens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Lens
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Lens Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Lens in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 22W 18D 6L in their last 46 games (1.83 PPG), while Lens have gone 27W 11D 8L in their last 46 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lens away?
Le Havre's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 2.00 PPG; Lens away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Lens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Lens in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 30 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Lens have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Le Havre's record when hosting Lens specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
2
Draws
3
Lens
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Lens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lens?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 1, Lens have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 January 2026: Lens 1-0 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lens?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 35%, Lens 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Le Havre) and 48% (Lens).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Lens in 35%; Le Havre have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Lens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Lens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Le Havre's recent matches and 56% of Lens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Lens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Le Havre's recent games and 48% of Lens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Lens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Le Havre's recent matches and 70% of Lens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Le Havre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 9, as Le Havre and Lens drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.36 xG and Lens 1.34 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lens landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Lens attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 36% | Draw 29% | Lens 35%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 33%, Lens 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lens's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.83 PPG, Lens 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Lens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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