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Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Auxerre 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Marseille beat Auxerre 1-0 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.08 xG and Auxerre 1.16 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Marseille fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Auxerre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.42 / defence 1.08 against Auxerre attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Marseille 59% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 21%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 66%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Marseille's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Auxerre's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights