Marseille 1-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Marseille vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Marseille host Auxerre at Orange Vélodrome in Ligue 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Marseille have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Marseille at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Marseille have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Marseille have won 3, Auxerre 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Marseille 1–0 Auxerre — a Marseille win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Marseille trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Auxerre trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Marseille 59% versus Auxerre 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Marseille 66% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Marseille 2.08 xG and Auxerre 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Marseille attack 1.418 / defence 1.082 | Auxerre attack 0.899 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.190. Marseille carry an above-average attack rating of 1.418 — their 2.08 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Marseille's last 59 games and Auxerre's last 59.
Result probabilities: Marseille 59% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 21%. Fair-value odds: Marseille 1.71 | Draw 4.80 | Auxerre 4.86. The model has a clear lean to Marseille (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.08 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Marseille as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Marseille's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Marseille 60% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Marseille vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Orange Vélodrome • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Marseille 59% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Marseille 2.08 / Auxerre 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Marseille attack 1.418 / def 1.082 | Auxerre attack 0.899 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Marseille (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Marseille xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Auxerre xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Marseille vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Marseille vs Auxerre kick off?
Marseille vs Auxerre kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Orange Vélodrome.
What was the final score in Marseille vs Auxerre?
Marseille 1 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Marseille vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Orange Vélodrome.
What competition is Marseille vs Auxerre part of?
Marseille vs Auxerre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Marseille vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Marseille a 59% chance of winning, Auxerre a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Marseille and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Marseille vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Marseille's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Marseille's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Marseille's last 59 games and Auxerre's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
59%
1.71
21%
4.80
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Marseille xG
Total xG
3.24
1.16
Auxerre xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
12%
8.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
3%
38.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Marseille vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Marseille vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Marseille and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Marseille and 1.16 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Marseille vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Marseille have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 34W 9D 16L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Auxerre's form line: 15W 16D 28L from 59 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Marseille are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Venue Form
On home soil, Marseille have posted 2.10 PPG from their last 29 home games (18W 7D 4L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 5W 7D 17L from their last 29 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Marseille are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.14 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Marseille
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
Marseille (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Marseille
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Marseille vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Marseille and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Marseille have gone 34W 9D 16L in their last 59 games (1.88 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 15W 16D 28L in their last 59 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Marseille at home or Auxerre away?
Marseille's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Marseille at home: 2.10 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Marseille have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Feb 2025, when Auxerre won Auxerre 3-0 Marseille.
Marseille's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Marseille
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Marseille vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Auxerre?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Marseille have won 4, Auxerre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Marseille and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Marseille 1-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Marseille and Auxerre?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Marseille 69%, Auxerre 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Marseille and 55% for Auxerre. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Marseille home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Marseille vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Marseille and Auxerre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Marseille's games and 55% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Marseille and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Marseille's matches and 55% of Auxerre's.
Do Marseille and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Marseille's recent matches and 83% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Auxerre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Auxerre 1-0 at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.08 xG and Auxerre 1.16 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Marseille fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Auxerre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.42 / defence 1.08 against Auxerre attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Marseille 59% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 21%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 66%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Marseille's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Auxerre's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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