Nice 1-0 Marseille – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Nice at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Marseille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Nice welcome Marseille to Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1 (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 21 October 2023 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Nice — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Nice's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Marseille have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Marseille have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Nice carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Nice, 2 for Marseille and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2023, ended Nice 3–1 Marseille — a Nice win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Marseille in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 50% versus Marseille 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 35% | Marseille 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.42 xG and Marseille 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.814 / defence 0.720 | Marseille attack 0.983 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.211. Nice have a tight defence (rating 0.720), which is pulling Marseille's projected output down. Data: built from Nice's last 46 games and Marseille's last 46.
Result probabilities: Nice 48% | Draw 31% | Marseille 21%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.07 | Draw 3.23 | Marseille 4.82. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Nice 50% (last 10 home games) | Marseille 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 48% | Draw 31% | Marseille 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Nice 1.42 / Marseille 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.814 / def 0.720 | Marseille attack 0.983 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Nice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Marseille xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nice vs Marseille FAQs
What time does Nice vs Marseille kick off?
Nice vs Marseille kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Marseille?
Nice 1 - 0 Marseille.
Where is Nice vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Marseille part of?
Nice vs Marseille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 9) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 48% chance of winning, Marseille a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nice and Marseille will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Nice vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nice's attack at 0.81x the league average against Marseille's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nice's last 46 games and Marseille's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
48%
2.07
31%
3.23
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Nice xG
Total xG
2.28
0.86
Marseille xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
5%
20.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nice vs Marseille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nice and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Nice and 0.86 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Nice have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 19W 17D 10L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Marseille's form line: 25W 10D 11L from 46 games, 1.85 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.61 PPG, Marseille on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nice have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 23 home games (8W 10D 5L).
On the road, Marseille have gone 12W 5D 6L from their last 23 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Nice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.72 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Marseille in 61%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Marseille
Blended
Nice (Home) vs Marseille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nice
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Nice vs Marseille Form FAQs
What form are Nice and Marseille in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 19W 17D 10L in their last 46 games (1.61 PPG), while Marseille have gone 25W 10D 11L in their last 46 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.48 PPG; Marseille away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Nice or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Marseille in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Nov 2025, when Marseille won Nice 1-5 Marseille.
Nice's record when hosting Marseille specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
3
Draws
4
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Nice vs Marseille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Marseille?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Nice have won 3, Marseille have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Marseille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2026: Marseille 1-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 44%, Marseille 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Nice) and 56% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Marseille in 35%; Nice have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nice vs Marseille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nice and Marseille matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nice's recent matches and 52% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nice and Marseille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Nice's recent games and 56% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Marseille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Nice's recent matches and 78% of Marseille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Marseille 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Marseille 1-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.42 xG and Marseille 0.86 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Marseille landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.81 / defence 0.72 against Marseille attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 48% | Draw 31% | Marseille 21%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 35%, Marseille 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Marseille's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.61 PPG, Marseille 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 1 fixtures — matchday 9
All Ligue 1 fixtures →
More French football predictions →