Lille 2-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Stade Brestois 29 travel to Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy to take on Lille. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 February 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Lille are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Lille have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 61% and Stade Brestois 29 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 53% | Stade Brestois 29 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.64 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.115 / defence 0.876 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.720 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.246. Data: 62 Lille games / 62 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 56% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 16%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Stade Brestois 29 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Lille (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Lille 60% | Stade Brestois 29 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 56% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Lille 1.64 / Stade Brestois 29 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.115 / def 0.876 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.720 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Lille (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Stade Brestois 29 xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lille 2 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 56% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 16% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lille and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (3 meetings): Lille 0W | Draws 2 | Stade Brestois 29 1W.
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.11x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
56%
1.79
28%
3.52
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Lille xG
Total xG
2.42
0.79
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
3%
32.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.4 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Lille and 0.79 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lille's recent record stands at 26W 18D 18L from 62 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 28L across 62 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lille have managed 14W 11D 6L from 31 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 8W 8D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lille are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.19 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Stade Brestois 29 in 61%.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 26W 18D 18L in their last 62 games (1.55 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 17W 17D 28L in their last 62 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Lille's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.71 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lille's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lille
5
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 61%, Stade Brestois 29 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lille) and 48% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Lille's games and 68% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lille's recent games and 48% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Stade Brestois 29 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Stade Brestois 29 2-1 at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.64 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.79 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.11 / defence 0.88 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.72 / defence 0.98, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 56% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 16%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 53%, Stade Brestois 29 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.