Nantes 0-1 Rennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Rennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Nantes welcome Rennes to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nantes have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rennes — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nantes at 1.60 PPG versus Rennes's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nantes, 2 for Rennes and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Rennes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nantes in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rennes in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 53% versus Rennes 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 42% | Rennes 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.41 xG and Rennes 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.792 / defence 0.808 | Rennes attack 0.961 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.253. Nantes's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Nantes games / 62 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 45% | Draw 31% | Rennes 24%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Rennes 4.17. Nantes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Nantes 40% | Rennes 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Rennes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 45% | Draw 31% | Rennes 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Nantes 1.41 / Rennes 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.792 / def 0.808 | Rennes attack 0.961 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Nantes (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Rennes xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Rennes kick off?
Nantes vs Rennes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Rennes?
Nantes 0 - 1 Rennes.
Where is Nantes vs Rennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Rennes part of?
Nantes vs Rennes is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Rennes?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 45% chance of winning, Rennes a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Rennes?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nantes and Rennes will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Rennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Rennes?
Record (3 meetings): Nantes 1W | Draws 0 | Rennes 2W.
What form are Nantes and Rennes in?
Nantes (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Rennes (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nantes's attack at 0.79x the league average against Rennes's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rennes's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
45%
2.22
31%
3.25
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.38
0.97
Rennes xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
6%
16.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Rennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Nantes and Rennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Nantes and 0.97 for Rennes, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Rennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nantes's recent record stands at 21W 20D 21L from 62 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rennes, meanwhile, have gone 33W 10D 19L across 62 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rennes by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 15W 9D 6L from 30 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rennes's away record stands at 8W 9D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rennes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nantes are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Rennes are on 2.03 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Rennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Rennes in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 21W 20D 21L in their last 62 games (1.34 PPG), while Rennes have gone 33W 10D 19L in their last 62 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Rennes away?
Nantes's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.80 PPG; Rennes away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Nantes or Rennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Rennes in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2022, when Rennes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nantes's record when hosting Rennes specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nantes
1
Draws
7
Rennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Rennes?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 2, Rennes have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Rennes last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Rennes 2-1 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Rennes?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 50%, Rennes 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Nantes) and 60% (Rennes).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Rennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Rennes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nantes's games and 77% of Rennes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantes vs Rennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Nantes's recent games and 60% of Rennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Rennes tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Rennes in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rennes defy the odds to beat Nantes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Nantes 0-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.41 xG and Rennes 0.97 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nantes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.79 / defence 0.81 against Rennes attack 0.96 / defence 1.20, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 45% | Draw 31% | Rennes 24%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Rennes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 42%, Rennes 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rennes's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Rennes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.