Lille 3-4 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lille face Lyon.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Lyon at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1 (matchday 32). Kick-off is Monday 6 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lille have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lille's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lyon stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lyon have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lille at 2.00 PPG versus Lyon's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Lille, 1 for Lyon and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Lille 2–0 Lyon — a Lille win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Lyon in-play tendencies (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 56% versus Lyon 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 48% | Lyon 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 2.07 xG and Lyon 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.274 / defence 0.691 | Lyon attack 1.088 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.383. Lille carry an above-average attack rating of 1.274 — their 2.07 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Lille have a tight defence (rating 0.691), which is pulling Lyon's projected output down. Data: built from Lille's last 69 games and Lyon's last 69.
Result probabilities: Lille 61% | Draw 22% | Lyon 18%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.65 | Draw 4.63 | Lyon 5.62. The model has a clear lean to Lille (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lille's last 10 home games and Lyon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lille 50% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 32 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 61% | Draw 22% | Lyon 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Lille 2.07 / Lyon 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.274 / def 0.691 | Lyon attack 1.088 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Lille (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Lyon xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lille vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Lille vs Lyon kick off?
Lille vs Lyon kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Monday 6 May 2024 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Lyon?
Lille 3 - 4 Lyon.
Where is Lille vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Lyon part of?
Lille vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 61% chance of winning, Lyon a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lille and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lille vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lille's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lille's last 69 games and Lyon's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.63
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Lille xG
Total xG
3.11
1.04
Lyon xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
2%
44.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lille vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Lille and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Lille and 1.04 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Lyon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille come into this having played 69 games, going 34W 20D 15L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.54 PPG from 69 outings (31W 13D 25L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.77 PPG, Lyon on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lille's home form reads 24W 7D 3L across their last 34 home games, a 2.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.44 points per game from their last 34 away games (15W 4D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.55 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 62%.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
Lille (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lille
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
❓ Lille vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Lille and Lyon in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 34W 20D 15L in their last 69 games (1.77 PPG), while Lyon have gone 31W 13D 25L in their last 69 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Lyon away?
Lille's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.32 PPG; Lyon away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Lille or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lyon in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 1 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lyon have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Lille's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lille
3
Draws
5
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Lille vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Lyon?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lille have won 2, Lyon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2026: Lyon 1-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 59%, Lyon 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Lille and 65% for Lyon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lille vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lille and Lyon matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lille's games and 65% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lille and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Lille's matches and 65% of Lyon's.
Do Lille and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Lille's recent matches and 68% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lyon defy the odds to beat Lille 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Lille 3-4 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 2.07 xG and Lyon 1.04 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Lille beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lyon outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.27 / defence 0.69 against Lyon attack 1.09 / defence 1.14, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 61% | Draw 22% | Lyon 18%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Lyon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 48%, Lyon 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.77 PPG, Lyon 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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