Nice 1-2 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris Saint Germain at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Paris Saint Germain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Paris Saint Germain travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 May 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Riviera.
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Paris Saint Germain's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nice 1.50 PPG, Paris Saint Germain 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Nice, 2 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2023, ended 3–2 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nice in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain in-play tendencies (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 46% versus Paris Saint Germain 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 37% | Paris Saint Germain 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 0.94 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.949 / defence 0.750 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.488 / defence 0.708. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.400. Paris Saint Germain's defence strength of 0.708 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.488 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Nice's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 70 Nice games / 70 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 22% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 52%. Fair-value odds: Nice 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Paris Saint Germain 1.92. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 40% | Paris Saint Germain 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 22% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Nice 0.94 / Paris Saint Germain 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.949 / def 0.750 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.488 / def 0.708 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Paris Saint Germain xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Nice 1 - 2 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 22% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Nice and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (5 meetings): Nice 2W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 2W.
What form are Nice and Paris Saint Germain in?
Nice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nice's attack rating (0.95) and Paris Saint Germain's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
22%
4.48
26%
3.83
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Nice xG
Total xG
2.50
1.56
Paris Saint Germain xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
5%
21.39
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.8 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nice and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Nice and 1.56 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nice come into this having played 70 games, going 30W 22D 18L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.21 PPG from 70 outings (47W 14D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Nice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nice's home form reads 16W 10D 8L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.38 points per game from 34 outings (25W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nice are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.37 scored and 1.03 conceded. Paris Saint Germain's attacking output running into Nice's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 61%.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Current Season
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 30W 22D 18L in their last 70 games (1.60 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 47W 14D 9L in their last 70 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.71 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Nice or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nice and Paris Saint Germain runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
2
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Paris Saint Germain?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Nice 0-4 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 38%, Paris Saint Germain 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Nice) and 62% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 44%; Nice have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Nice's recent matches and 53% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Nice's recent games and 62% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris Saint Germain edge out Nice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Nice 1-2 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 0.94 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.56 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.95 / defence 0.75 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.49 / defence 0.71, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 22% | Draw 26% | Paris Saint Germain 52%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 37%, Paris Saint Germain 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.