Clermont Foot 0-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host Lyon at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stade Gabriel-Montpied — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Lyon's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Lyon's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 3, Lyon 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lyon in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 54% versus Lyon 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 49% | Lyon 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.60 xG and Lyon 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.939 / defence 1.156 | Lyon attack 1.267 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.397. Lyon have an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Clermont Foot games / 70 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 22% | Lyon 48%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Lyon 2.08. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Clermont Foot dominate the H2H record, yet Lyon are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Lyon 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 22% | Lyon 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Clermont Foot 1.60 / Lyon 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.939 / def 1.156 | Lyon attack 1.267 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Lyon (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Lyon xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Lyon kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Lyon kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Lyon part of?
Clermont Foot vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 30% chance of winning, Lyon a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Clermont Foot and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lyon?
Record (5 meetings): Clermont Foot 3W | Draws 1 | Lyon 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Lyon in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Lyon (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.94x the league average against Lyon's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
30%
3.33
22%
4.54
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
3.65
2.05
Lyon xG
3.33
30%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
13%
7.75
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
4%
25.85
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 2.05 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 22W 18D 30L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Lyon's form line: 32W 13D 25L from 70 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.20 PPG, Lyon on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.26 PPG from 35 outings (12W 8D 15L).
On the road, Lyon have gone 16W 4D 15L from 35 away games — 1.49 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.59 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 63%.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Lyon in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 22W 18D 30L in their last 70 games (1.20 PPG), while Lyon have gone 32W 13D 25L in their last 70 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.26 PPG; Lyon away: 1.49 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Lyon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
2
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lyon?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Lyon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Lyon?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 49%, Lyon 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Clermont Foot) and 66% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Clermont Foot's games and 66% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Clermont Foot's matches and 66% of Lyon's.
Do Clermont Foot and Lyon tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lyon in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.60 xG and Lyon 2.05 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Lyon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.94 / defence 1.16 against Lyon attack 1.27 / defence 1.20, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 22% | Lyon 48%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 49%, Lyon 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lyon's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.20 PPG, Lyon 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.