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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lille and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 32, as Lille and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.46 xG and Le Havre 0.75 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.91 / defence 0.81 against Le Havre attack 0.72 / defence 1.08, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lille 52% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 18%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 46%, Le Havre 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lille's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Le Havre's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights