Lille 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lille face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lille and Le Havre meet at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1 (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Lille (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Lille have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Le Havre have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lille's 2.40 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Le Havre's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Lille, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Le Havre — Le Havre have 1 win, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Lille 1–0 Le Havre — a Lille win.
The head-to-head data gives Lille an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Le Havre — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 49% versus Le Havre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 46% | Le Havre 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.46 xG and Le Havre 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.914 / defence 0.806 | Le Havre attack 0.720 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.296. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Lille's last 65 games and Le Havre's last 65.
Result probabilities: Lille 52% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 18%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.91 | Draw 3.32 | Le Havre 5.67. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lille's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lille 40% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 52% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Lille 1.46 / Le Havre 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.914 / def 0.806 | Le Havre attack 0.720 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Lille (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Le Havre xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lille vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Lille vs Le Havre kick off?
Lille vs Le Havre kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Le Havre?
Lille 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Lille vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Le Havre part of?
Lille vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 52% chance of winning, Le Havre a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lille and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Lille vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lille's attack rating (0.91) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.72x) against Lille's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from Lille's last 65 games and Le Havre's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
52%
1.91
30%
3.32
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Lille xG
Total xG
2.21
0.75
Le Havre xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
4%
24.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lille vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lille and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Lille and 0.75 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille's recent record stands at 34W 15D 16L from 65 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 32L across 65 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lille have managed 19W 8D 5L from their last 32 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 8W 7D 17L across their last 32 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.06 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
Lille (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lille
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Lille vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Lille and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 34W 15D 16L in their last 65 games (1.80 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 16W 17D 32L in their last 65 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Le Havre away?
Lille's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.03 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Lille or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Le Havre in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won Lille 3-0 Le Havre on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Lille
1
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Lille vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Le Havre?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Lille have won 5, Le Havre have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lille and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Lille 1-0 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Le Havre?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 62%, Le Havre 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lille) and 41% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Le Havre in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lille vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lille and Le Havre matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lille's games and 53% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lille and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lille's recent games and 41% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Lille's recent matches and 62% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 32, as Lille and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.46 xG and Le Havre 0.75 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.91 / defence 0.81 against Le Havre attack 0.72 / defence 1.08, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 52% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 18%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 46%, Le Havre 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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