🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Reims at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Le Havre encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 16:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Reims have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Reims's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Reims are significantly better at Stade Auguste-Delaune than their overall form suggests.

Le Havre (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Le Havre have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Reims against 0.60 for Le Havre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Across 3 previous meetings, Reims are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with Reims winning.

The historical record gives Reims a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 65% versus Le Havre 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 57% | Le Havre 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.56 xG and Le Havre 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.864 / defence 1.178 | Le Havre attack 0.857 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.310. Data: 51 Reims games / 51 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Reims 41% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 30%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Le Havre 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reims 70% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights