Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Le Havre face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Le Havre versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 3W 4D 3L at — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Paris Saint Germain, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Paris Saint Germain 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 31% | Paris Saint Germain 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.14 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.788 / defence 0.938 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.172 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Le Havre games / 36 Paris Saint Germain games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 27% | Draw 30% | Paris Saint Germain 43%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Paris Saint Germain 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Paris Saint Germain 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 27% | Draw 30% | Paris Saint Germain 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Le Havre 1.14 / Paris Saint Germain 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.788 / def 0.938 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.172 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Paris Saint Germain xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026.
What competition is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 27% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (6 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 5W.
What form are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.17x) against Le Havre's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
27%
3.69
30%
3.29
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.61
1.47
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
6%
16.02
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.47 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre come into this having played 36 games, going 7W 15D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.17 PPG from 36 outings (24W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Le Havre's home form reads 5W 8D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.00 points per game from 18 outings (11W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.17 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 15D 14L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.28 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-4 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
1
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Le Havre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 56%, Paris Saint Germain 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Le Havre) and 56% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 39%; Le Havre have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Le Havre's recent games and 56% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.