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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Le Havre and Metz share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Le Havre and Metz finished level at 4-4 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.50 xG and Metz 0.64 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Metz outscored their 0.64 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.78 / defence 0.76 against Metz attack 0.66 / defence 1.31, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Le Havre 57% | Draw 29% | Metz 14%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 48%, Metz 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Le Havre's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Metz's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.00 PPG, Metz 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights