Le Havre 0-1 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 50%, yet in-form Marseille provide a compelling counter-argument — this Le Havre vs Marseille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Marseille make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 1 (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Le Havre's record over their last 10 games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Le Havre's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Le Havre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Marseille have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Marseille's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Marseille are 0.70 PPG clear of Le Havre over their recent games (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Marseille, who have 5 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Le Havre 2–6 Marseille — a Marseille win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Marseille have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Marseille half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 72% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 58% versus Marseille 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 48% | Marseille 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.67 xG and Marseille 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.927 / defence 0.999 | Marseille attack 0.829 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.292. Data: built from Le Havre's last 66 games and Marseille's last 66.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 50% | Draw 27% | Marseille 23%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.01 | Draw 3.66 | Marseille 4.38. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Marseille (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Le Havre's last 10 home games and Marseille's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Le Havre 50% (last 10 home games) | Marseille 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 33 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 50% | Draw 27% | Marseille 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Le Havre 1.67 / Marseille 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.927 / def 0.999 | Marseille attack 0.829 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Marseille xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Marseille FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Marseille kick off?
Le Havre vs Marseille kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Marseille?
Le Havre 0 - 1 Marseille.
Where is Le Havre vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Marseille part of?
Le Havre vs Marseille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 33) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 50% chance of winning, Marseille a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Le Havre and Marseille will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Le Havre vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.93x the league average against Marseille's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Marseille's attack (0.83x) against Le Havre's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 66 games and Marseille's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.66
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.74
1.07
Marseille xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
4%
23.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Marseille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.07 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre's recent record stands at 16W 18D 32L from 66 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Marseille, meanwhile, have gone 36W 10D 20L across 66 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Marseille by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 8W 10D 15L from their last 33 home games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Marseille's away record stands at 16W 2D 15L across their last 33 away games, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 2.02 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Marseille
Current Season
Le Havre (Home) vs Marseille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Current Season
Marseille
Current Season
❓ Le Havre vs Marseille Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Marseille in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 16W 18D 32L in their last 66 games (1.00 PPG), while Marseille have gone 36W 10D 20L in their last 66 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.03 PPG; Marseille away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Le Havre and Marseille, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Marseille have taken the most recent 7 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Marseille won Marseille 5-1 Le Havre on 5 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Marseille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Le Havre
0
Draws
7
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Marseille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Marseille?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 0, Marseille have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Marseille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Marseille 4-3 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 61%, Marseille 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Le Havre and 64% for Marseille. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 33% of games; Marseille in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Marseille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Marseille matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Le Havre's recent matches and 48% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Marseille matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Le Havre's matches and 64% of Marseille's.
Do Le Havre and Marseille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Le Havre's recent matches and 67% of Marseille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Marseille defy the odds to beat Le Havre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.67 xG and Marseille 1.07 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Marseille attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 50% | Draw 27% | Marseille 23%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Marseille win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 48%, Marseille 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Marseille's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Marseille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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