🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Rennes at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Paris FC make the trip to Roazhon Park to face Rennes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Form

Rennes (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Rennes's home record at Roazhon Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Paris FC's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Rennes, 1.90 for Paris FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rennes register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Paris FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rennes 1W, Paris FC 0W, 0D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Rennes winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Rennes — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Paris FC — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 52% versus Paris FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 64% | Paris FC 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.31 xG and Paris FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 0.999 / defence 0.907 | Paris FC attack 0.866 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.292. Data: 66 Rennes games / 32 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rennes 42% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Paris FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rennes 70% | Paris FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights