Estac Troyes vs Auxerre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Auxerre make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estac Troyes have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stade de l'Aube — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.60 for Auxerre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Auxerre, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Auxerre winning.
It is worth noting that Auxerre have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Auxerre — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 51% versus Auxerre 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 54% | Auxerre 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.59 xG and Auxerre 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.790 / defence 1.470 | Auxerre attack 1.064 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.296. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Estac Troyes games / 39 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 30% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 47%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Auxerre 2.13. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 50% | Auxerre 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 30% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Estac Troyes 1.59 / Auxerre 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.790 / def 1.470 | Auxerre attack 1.064 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Auxerre xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Auxerre kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Auxerre is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Stade de l'Aube.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Auxerre part of?
Estac Troyes vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 30% chance of winning, Auxerre a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Estac Troyes and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Auxerre?
Record (4 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 3W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Auxerre in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.06x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
30%
3.37
23%
4.34
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
3.61
2.03
Auxerre xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
13%
7.59
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
4%
25.59
10%
10.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 2.03 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 21W 8D 10L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre's form line: 10W 10D 19L from 39 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Estac Troyes are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 2.32 PPG from 19 outings (14W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Estac Troyes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 6D 11L from 19 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.05 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 21W 8D 10L in their last 39 games (1.82 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 10W 10D 19L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Auxerre away?
Estac Troyes's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 2.32 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Auxerre in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Auxerre have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Auxerre have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2024, when Auxerre 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 58%, Auxerre 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Estac Troyes) and 47% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Auxerre in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Estac Troyes's games and 53% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Estac Troyes's matches and 47% of Auxerre's.
Do Estac Troyes and Auxerre tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.