Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Auxerre welcome Paris Saint Germain to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre at this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris Saint Germain's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Auxerre) versus 1.80 (Paris Saint Germain). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Paris Saint Germain have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Auxerre's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
It is worth noting that Paris Saint Germain have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 44% versus Paris Saint Germain 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 47% | Paris Saint Germain 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.32 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.913 / defence 1.130 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.172 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Data: 36 Auxerre games / 36 Paris Saint Germain games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 27% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 46%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Paris Saint Germain 2.17. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 40% | Paris Saint Germain 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 27% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Auxerre 1.32 / Paris Saint Germain 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.913 / def 1.130 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.172 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Paris Saint Germain xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 27% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 5W.
What form are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
27%
3.74
27%
3.69
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.09
1.77
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
17%
5.87
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
5%
21.94
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.77 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 36 games, going 8W 10D 18L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.17 PPG from 36 outings (24W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Auxerre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 6W 4D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.00 points per game from 18 outings (11W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.17 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 8W 10D 18L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.22 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Paris Saint Germain have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Auxerre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 39%, Paris Saint Germain 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 56% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Paris Saint Germain in 39%; Auxerre have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Auxerre's recent matches and 50% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 56% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.