Clermont Foot 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Clermont Foot welcome Stade Brestois 29 to Stade Gabriel Montpied. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 2D 1L from 5 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 0W 3D 2L from 5 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Clermont Foot have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Clermont Foot 40% and Stade Brestois 29 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 60% | Stade Brestois 29 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.60 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 1.073 / defence 1.130 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.781 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.412. Stade Brestois 29 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Clermont Foot games / 5 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 42% | Draw 32% | Stade Brestois 29 26%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Stade Brestois 29 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 40% | Stade Brestois 29 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 42% | Draw 32% | Stade Brestois 29 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Clermont Foot 1.60 / Stade Brestois 29 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 1.073 / def 1.130 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.781 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Stade Brestois 29 xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 42% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 1.07x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
42%
2.38
32%
3.16
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.84
1.25
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.25 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 2L across 5 games — 0.60 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Clermont Foot by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 in 100%.
Defensively: Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Have Clermont Foot or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
4
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Clermont Foot at 40%, Stade Brestois 29 at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Clermont Foot) and 40% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Clermont Foot's games and 100% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 40% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.60 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.25 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 1.07 / defence 1.13 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 42% | Draw 32% | Stade Brestois 29 26%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 60%, Stade Brestois 29 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Clermont Foot arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Clermont Foot managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Brestois 29 conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.