Rennes 6-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Rennes take on Clermont Foot.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Rennes welcome Clermont Foot to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rennes stand at 1W 2D 3L from 6 Ligue 1 matches — 0.83 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rennes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rennes's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Roazhon Park this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.83 — Rennes are significantly better at Roazhon Park than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 3D 1L from 6 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.67. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Clermont Foot's 1.50 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Rennes's 0.83 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Rennes trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Clermont Foot trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 33% versus Clermont Foot 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rennes 0% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.25 xG and Clermont Foot 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 0.782 / defence 1.029 | Clermont Foot attack 0.882 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.413. Rennes's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Rennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Rennes games / 6 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 32% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 34%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Clermont Foot 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Rennes 33% | Clermont Foot 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 32% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 55% | xG Rennes 1.25 / Clermont Foot 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 0.782 / def 1.029 | Clermont Foot attack 0.882 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Clermont Foot xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Rennes vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Rennes 6 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Rennes vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Clermont Foot part of?
Rennes vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 32% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rennes and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rennes and Clermont Foot in?
Rennes (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rennes's attack rating (0.78) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.13
34%
2.90
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.53
1.28
Clermont Foot xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Rennes and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Rennes and 1.28 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rennes's recent record stands at 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 1L across 6 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Clermont Foot by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rennes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Clermont Foot away?
Rennes's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.33 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Rennes or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Clermont Foot runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rennes have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2021, when Rennes won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Rennes
0
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Rennes have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Rennes 3-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Clermont Foot?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Rennes 33% BTTS, Clermont Foot 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Rennes and 67% for Clermont Foot.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 33%; Rennes have failed to score in 33% of games; Clermont Foot in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rennes's recent matches and 33% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Rennes's recent games and 67% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rennes run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Clermont Foot 6-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.25 xG and Clermont Foot 1.28 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 4.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Clermont Foot landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against Clermont Foot attack 0.88 / defence 1.42, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 32% | Draw 34% | Clermont Foot 34%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 0%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Clermont Foot arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Rennes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.