Reims 0-0 Lorient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lorient at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Lorient fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lorient make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune II to face Reims in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reims's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lorient (all games): 2W 2D 1L across 5 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lorient have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lorient's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Reims against 1.60 for Lorient. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lorient half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 40% and Lorient 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reims 20% | Lorient 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.50 xG and Lorient 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.943 / defence 1.317 | Lorient attack 0.854 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.412. Lorient bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Reims games / 5 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 33% | Draw 30% | Lorient 37%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Lorient 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lorient at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lorient if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 40% | Lorient 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 33% | Draw 30% | Lorient 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Reims 1.50 / Lorient 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.943 / def 1.317 | Lorient attack 0.854 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Lorient (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Lorient xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Lorient kick off?
Reims vs Lorient kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Lorient?
Reims 0 - 0 Lorient.
Where is Reims vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Lorient part of?
Reims vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 33% chance of winning, Lorient a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Reims and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lorient?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Lorient in?
Reims (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Lorient (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Reims's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Lorient's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Lorient's attack (0.85x) against Reims's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
33%
3.03
30%
3.29
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Reims xG
Total xG
3.09
1.59
Lorient xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
7%
14.80
8%
12.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Reims and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Reims and 1.59 for Lorient, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Reims come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 3D 1L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lorient sit at 1.60 PPG from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lorient, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lorient carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Reims — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reims are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lorient in 80%.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Lorient
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Lorient in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Lorient have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Reims or Lorient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Lorient in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lorient — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Reims
2
Draws
1
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Lorient?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 3, Lorient have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Lorient 2-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Lorient?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 40%, Lorient 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Reims) and 60% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Lorient?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Reims's games and 80% of Lorient's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Reims's recent games and 60% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Lorient tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lorient in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims and Lorient finished level at 0-0 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.50 xG and Lorient 1.59 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Lorient landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.94 / defence 1.32 against Lorient attack 0.85 / defence 1.35, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 33% | Draw 30% | Lorient 37%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 20%, Lorient 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lorient's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lorient arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Reims managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.