Saint Etienne 1-2 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Saint Etienne welcome Bordeaux to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — All Games: 0W 3D 2L from 5 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 0W 2D 3L from 5 Ligue 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bordeaux have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Saint Etienne at 0.60 PPG versus Bordeaux's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Saint Etienne register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Bordeaux in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Saint Etienne 80% and Bordeaux 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 40% | Bordeaux 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.47 xG and Bordeaux 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.839 / defence 1.087 | Bordeaux attack 0.794 / defence 1.480. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.369. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.480 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Saint Etienne games / 5 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 40% | Draw 33% | Bordeaux 27%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Bordeaux 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 80% | Bordeaux 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 40% | Draw 33% | Bordeaux 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Saint Etienne 1.47 / Bordeaux 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.839 / def 1.087 | Bordeaux attack 0.794 / def 1.480 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Bordeaux xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Saint Etienne 1 - 2 Bordeaux.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux part of?
Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 40% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Saint Etienne and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Bordeaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Bordeaux in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.84) and Bordeaux's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
40%
2.50
33%
3.01
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.65
1.18
Bordeaux xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
6%
16.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.18 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 0W 3D 2L from 5 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 3L across 5 games — 0.40 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bordeaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 0.60 PPG, Bordeaux on 0.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.00 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Bordeaux in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Bordeaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Bordeaux specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
1
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Bordeaux?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Bordeaux have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Saint Etienne 2-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Bordeaux?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Saint Etienne at 80%, Bordeaux at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Saint Etienne) and 60% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Bordeaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Saint Etienne's games and 60% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 60% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bordeaux defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Saint Etienne 1-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.47 xG and Bordeaux 1.18 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bordeaux outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Bordeaux attack 0.79 / defence 1.48, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 40% | Draw 33% | Bordeaux 27%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bordeaux win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 40%, Bordeaux 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Bordeaux's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.60 PPG, Bordeaux 0.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Bordeaux scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.