Angers 1-2 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Clermont Foot make the trip to Stade Raymond-Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Angers (all games): 0W 0D 10L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers's home record at Stade Raymond-Kopa: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Angers are significantly better at Stade Raymond-Kopa than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Clermont Foot are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Angers have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Clermont Foot in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Angers 0W, Clermont Foot 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Angers half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 55% versus Clermont Foot 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 52% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.07 xG and Clermont Foot 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.872 / defence 1.303 | Clermont Foot attack 0.971 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.333. Data: 56 Angers games / 56 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 23% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 51%. Fair-value odds: Angers 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 1.96. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Angers 70% | Clermont Foot 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 23% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Angers 1.07 / Clermont Foot 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.872 / def 1.303 | Clermont Foot attack 0.971 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Clermont Foot xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Angers vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Clermont Foot?
Angers 1 - 2 Clermont Foot.
Where is Angers vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Clermont Foot part of?
Angers vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 23% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Angers and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Clermont Foot?
Record (2 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Angers and Clermont Foot in?
Angers (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Angers's attack at 0.87x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.97x) against Angers's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
23%
4.29
26%
3.92
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Angers xG
Total xG
2.75
1.69
Clermont Foot xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
4%
23.16
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Angers and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Angers and 1.69 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers's recent record stands at 12W 13D 31L from 56 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 27L across 56 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Angers against 1.09 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Angers have managed 9W 3D 16L from 28 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.07 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 12W 13D 31L in their last 56 games (0.88 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 16W 13D 27L in their last 56 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Clermont Foot away?
Angers's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.07 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Clermont Foot have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Angers
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Angers have won 0, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Clermont Foot 2-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 54%, Clermont Foot 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Angers) and 43% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Angers have failed to score in 29% of games; Clermont Foot in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Angers's recent matches and 43% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Angers's recent games and 43% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Clermont Foot edge out Angers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Angers 1-2 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.07 xG and Clermont Foot 1.69 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.87 / defence 1.30 against Clermont Foot attack 0.97 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 23% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 51%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 52%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 0.88 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.