Clermont Foot 0-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lille make the trip to Stade Gabriel Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot at Stade Gabriel Montpied this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lille have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lille have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lille are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Clermont Foot register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lille in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Clermont Foot lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 0–4 with Lille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 55% versus Lille 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 51% | Lille 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.14 xG and Lille 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.862 / defence 1.167 | Lille attack 1.078 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.352. Data: 53 Clermont Foot games / 53 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 25% | Draw 26% | Lille 50%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Lille 2.00. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 70% | Lille 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 25% | Draw 26% | Lille 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Clermont Foot 1.14 / Lille 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.862 / def 1.167 | Lille attack 1.078 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Lille (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Lille xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Lille kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Lille kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Clermont Foot 0 - 2 Lille.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Lille part of?
Clermont Foot vs Lille is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 25% chance of winning, Lille a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Clermont Foot and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lille?
Record (2 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 0 | Lille 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Lille in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Lille (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.86) and Lille's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lille's attack (1.08x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
25%
4.06
26%
3.91
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.84
1.70
Lille xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
5%
22.20
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.70 for Lille, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 14W 13D 26L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille's form line: 22W 15D 16L from 53 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lille are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.08 PPG from 26 outings (7W 7D 12L).
On the road, Lille have gone 10W 6D 10L from 26 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.42 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Lille in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 14W 13D 26L in their last 53 games (1.04 PPG), while Lille have gone 22W 15D 16L in their last 53 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.08 PPG; Lille away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 4-0 on 6 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Lille have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Clermont Foot, 65% for Lille — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Clermont Foot) and 58% (Lille). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Clermont Foot's games and 65% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Clermont Foot's matches and 58% of Lille's.
Do Clermont Foot and Lille tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lille in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Clermont Foot 0-2 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.14 xG and Lille 1.70 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Clermont Foot fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Lille attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 25% | Draw 26% | Lille 50%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 51%, Lille 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lille's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.