Lille 1-0 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy plays host to Lille versus Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Angers have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Lille's favour (1.60 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Lille 0W, Angers 0W, 2D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Angers — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 65% and Angers 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 58% | Angers 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 2.46 xG and Angers 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.245 / defence 1.177 | Angers attack 0.825 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.373. Angers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Lille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Lille games / 52 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 62% | Draw 19% | Angers 19%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.61 | Draw 5.26 | Angers 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Lille (62%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lille 80% | Angers 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 62% | Draw 19% | Angers 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 68% | xG Lille 2.46 / Angers 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.245 / def 1.177 | Angers attack 0.825 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Lille (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Angers xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Angers kick off?
Lille vs Angers kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Angers?
Lille 1 - 0 Angers.
Where is Lille vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Angers part of?
Lille vs Angers is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 62% chance of winning, Angers a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Lille and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Angers?
Record (2 meetings): Lille 0W | Draws 2 | Angers 0W.
What form are Lille and Angers in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Angers (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lille's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.46. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.82x) against Lille's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
62%
1.62
19%
5.13
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
Lille xG
Total xG
3.79
1.33
Angers xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
9%
11.65
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
2%
61.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Lille and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Lille and 1.33 for Angers, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Angers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lille come into this having played 52 games, going 21W 15D 16L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Angers sit at 0.94 PPG from 52 outings (12W 13D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lille's home form reads 11W 9D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.76 points per game from 25 outings (3W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lille are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.13 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Angers in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 21W 15D 16L in their last 52 games (1.50 PPG), while Angers have gone 12W 13D 27L in their last 52 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Angers away?
Lille's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.68 PPG; Angers away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lille go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Angers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Lille
2
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Angers?
From 8 meetings on record, Lille have won 5, Angers have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Angers 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Angers?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Lille, 64% for Angers — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lille) and 48% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Angers in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Angers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Lille's games and 64% of Angers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lille's recent games and 48% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Angers tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Angers in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Angers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Angers 1-0 at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 2.46 xG and Angers 1.33 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lille fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Angers landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.25 / defence 1.18 against Angers attack 0.82 / defence 1.33, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 62% | Draw 19% | Angers 19%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 58%, Angers 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Angers's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.