Ajaccio 1-0 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Angers travel to Stade François Coty to take on Ajaccio. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 December 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajaccio stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stade François Coty this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Angers have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Ajaccio in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Angers in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 30% versus Angers 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 28% | Angers 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.49 xG and Angers 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.846 / defence 1.254 | Angers attack 0.770 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.367. Data: 15 Ajaccio games / 53 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 40% | Draw 27% | Angers 33%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Angers 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajaccio at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajaccio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Ajaccio 50% | Angers 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 40% | Draw 27% | Angers 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Ajaccio 1.49 / Angers 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.846 / def 1.254 | Angers attack 0.770 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Angers xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Angers kick off?
Ajaccio vs Angers kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 28 December 2022 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Angers?
Ajaccio 1 - 0 Angers.
Where is Ajaccio vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Angers part of?
Ajaccio vs Angers is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 40% chance of winning, Angers a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Ajaccio and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Angers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajaccio and Angers in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Angers (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ajaccio's attack rating (0.85) and Angers's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.71
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.80
1.32
Angers xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.32 for Angers, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 25W 12D 16L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Angers's form line: 12W 13D 28L from 53 games, 0.92 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajaccio are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Angers.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 1.77 PPG from 26 outings (14W 4D 8L).
On the road, Angers have gone 3W 10D 13L from 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajaccio are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.11 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Angers in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 25W 12D 16L in their last 53 games (1.64 PPG), while Angers have gone 12W 13D 28L in their last 53 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Angers away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.77 PPG; Angers away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Angers in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ajaccio's record when hosting Angers specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ajaccio
1
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Angers?
From 4 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 2, Angers have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2024, when Angers 3-1 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Angers?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 31%, Angers 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Ajaccio) and 46% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 38% of games; Angers in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 62% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Ajaccio's recent games and 46% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Angers tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Angers in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Angers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Angers 1-0 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.49 xG and Angers 1.32 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Angers landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.85 / defence 1.25 against Angers attack 0.77 / defence 1.19, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 40% | Draw 27% | Angers 33%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 28%, Angers 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Angers's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.