🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre and Strasbourg finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.05 xG and Strasbourg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Strasbourg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.68 / defence 1.09 against Strasbourg attack 1.20 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 25% | Draw 25% | Strasbourg 49%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 53%, Strasbourg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Strasbourg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights