Auxerre 0-0 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Strasbourg at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Strasbourg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Strasbourg at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Auxerre have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Auxerre have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Strasbourg — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Strasbourg have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Auxerre) versus 1.30 (Strasbourg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Strasbourg have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Auxerre.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2025, ended Auxerre 0–3 Strasbourg — a Strasbourg win.
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Strasbourg in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 48% versus Strasbourg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 53% | Strasbourg 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Auxerre surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Strasbourg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.05 xG and Strasbourg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.675 / defence 1.094 | Strasbourg attack 1.196 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.199. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.675 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Auxerre's last 58 games and Strasbourg's last 58.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 25% | Draw 25% | Strasbourg 49%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.94 | Draw 3.96 | Strasbourg 2.02. Strasbourg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Strasbourg 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Strasbourg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 30% (last 10 home games) | Strasbourg 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 25% | Draw 25% | Strasbourg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Auxerre 1.05 / Strasbourg 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.675 / def 1.094 | Strasbourg attack 1.196 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Strasbourg xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Strasbourg FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Strasbourg kick off?
Auxerre vs Strasbourg kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Strasbourg.
Where is Auxerre vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Strasbourg part of?
Auxerre vs Strasbourg is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 25% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Auxerre and Strasbourg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Auxerre vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.68) and Strasbourg's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 58 games and Strasbourg's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
25%
3.94
25%
3.96
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.62
1.57
Strasbourg xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
5%
18.95
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Strasbourg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.57 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 15W 15D 28L from 58 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 18L across 58 games — 1.59 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Strasbourg by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 10W 8D 11L from their last 29 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 9W 7D 13L across their last 29 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Strasbourg's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.66 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 64%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Strasbourg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Strasbourg Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 15W 15D 28L in their last 58 games (1.03 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 26W 14D 18L in their last 58 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Strasbourg away?
Auxerre's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.31 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Nov 2026, when Strasbourg won Strasbourg 5-1 Auxerre.
Auxerre's record when hosting Strasbourg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Strasbourg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Strasbourg?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 1, Strasbourg have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Strasbourg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Strasbourg 5-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Strasbourg?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 41%, Strasbourg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Auxerre) and 55% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Strasbourg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Strasbourg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Auxerre's recent matches and 62% of Strasbourg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Strasbourg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Auxerre's recent games and 55% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Strasbourg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Auxerre's recent matches and 69% of Strasbourg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Strasbourg finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.05 xG and Strasbourg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Strasbourg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.68 / defence 1.09 against Strasbourg attack 1.20 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 25% | Draw 25% | Strasbourg 49%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 53%, Strasbourg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Strasbourg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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