Auxerre vs Nice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Nice meet at in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nice (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Nice have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Auxerre's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Nice's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Auxerre lead 2W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Auxerre — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Nice — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 44% versus Nice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 47% | Nice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.57 xG and Nice 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.913 / defence 1.130 | Nice attack 0.797 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Data: 36 Auxerre games / 36 Nice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 44% | Draw 29% | Nice 27%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Nice 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 40% | Nice 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 44% | Draw 29% | Nice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Auxerre 1.57 / Nice 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.913 / def 1.130 | Nice attack 0.797 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Nice xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Nice kick off?
Auxerre vs Nice is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Saturday 12 September 2026.
What competition is Auxerre vs Nice part of?
Auxerre vs Nice is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 44% chance of winning, Nice a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Auxerre and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nice?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 3 | Nice 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Nice in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Nice (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.91) and Nice's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nice's attack (0.80x) against Auxerre's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.43
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.78
1.20
Nice xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
6%
17.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.20 for Nice, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre's recent record stands at 8W 10D 18L from 36 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 16L across 36 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Auxerre against 0.94 for Nice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 6W 4D 8L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 3W 4D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.06 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Nice in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 8W 10D 18L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while Nice have gone 7W 13D 16L in their last 36 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Nice away?
Auxerre's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.22 PPG; Nice away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
3
Draws
1
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Nice?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Nice have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Auxerre 2-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Nice?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 39%, Nice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 56% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 44% of games; Nice in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Auxerre's recent matches and 56% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 56% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Nice tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Nice in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.