Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Auxerre's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Auxerre's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stade Brestois 29 away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Stade Brestois 29 are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Stade Brestois 29 edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Jan 2026, ended Auxerre 0–2 Stade Brestois 29 — a Stade Brestois 29 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Stade Brestois 29 half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 47% versus Stade Brestois 29 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Stade Brestois 29 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.98 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.645 / defence 0.977 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.882 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.177. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.645 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Auxerre's last 60 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 60.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 34% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 35%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.96 | Draw 3.24 | Stade Brestois 29 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 30% (last 10 home games) | Stade Brestois 29 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 34% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Auxerre 0.98 / Stade Brestois 29 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.645 / def 0.977 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.882 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Stade Brestois 29 xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Auxerre 3 - 0 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 34% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.65) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (0.88x) against Auxerre's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 60 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
34%
2.96
31%
3.24
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.00
1.01
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.01 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 15W 16D 29L from 60 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 24L across 60 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stade Brestois 29 by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 10W 9D 11L from their last 30 home games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 8W 5D 17L across their last 30 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stade Brestois 29's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.43 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Stade Brestois 29 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 25W 11D 24L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Auxerre's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.30 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Auxerre have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Auxerre won Auxerre 3-0 Stade Brestois 29 on 27 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Auxerre
2
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Auxerre 2-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 40%, Stade Brestois 29 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 63% (Stade Brestois 29). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 37% of games; Stade Brestois 29 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Auxerre's recent matches and 57% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Auxerre's matches and 63% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Auxerre's recent matches and 83% of Stade Brestois 29's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stade Brestois 29.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Stade Brestois 29 3-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.98 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.01 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stade Brestois 29 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.65 / defence 0.98 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.88 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 34% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 35%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Stade Brestois 29 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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