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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Paris FC welcome Le Havre to Stade Jean Bouin. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Jean Bouin, Paris FC have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Le Havre — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Le Havre have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Paris FC) versus 1.20 (Le Havre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Paris FC have won 1, Le Havre 0, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Paris FC in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 52% versus Le Havre 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 48% | Le Havre 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.07 xG and Le Havre 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.720 / defence 1.334 | Le Havre attack 0.635 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.196. Paris FC's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Paris FC games / 60 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 37% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 33%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Le Havre 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 40% | Le Havre 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Jean Bouin • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (5 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 4 | Le Havre 0W • Goals trend: 1.40 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Paris FC 4 – 3 Le Havre • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: Paris FC 20% / Draw 80% / Le Havre 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 37% / draw 30% / away 33% • Goals corroboration (Under 2.5): H2H averages only 1.40 goals/game (60% Under 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.09 (65% Under probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 42% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Paris FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D • Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D • Paris FC home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | CS 3 • Le Havre away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (Paris FC 1.20 PPG vs Le Havre 1.20 PPG) • xG vs form (Paris FC): Poisson xG of 1.07 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Le Havre): Poisson projects 1.01 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.40 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.5 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.09 (65% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~30% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 42% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 37% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Paris FC 1.07 / Le Havre 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.720 / def 1.334 | Le Havre attack 0.635 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Le Havre xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Le Havre kick off?
Paris FC vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stade Jean Bouin.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Paris FC 3 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Paris FC vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Bouin.
What competition is Paris FC vs Le Havre part of?
Paris FC vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 37% chance of winning, Le Havre a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Paris FC and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Le Havre?
• Record (5 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 4 | Le Havre 0W • Goals trend: 1.40 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Paris FC 4 – 3 Le Havre • H2H markets: BTTS 40% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: Paris FC 20% / Draw 80% / Le Havre 0% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 37% / draw 30% / away 33% • Goals corroboration (Under 2.5): H2H averages only 1.40 goals/game (60% Under 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.09 (65% Under probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS: H2H rate 40%, Poisson probability 42% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Paris FC and Le Havre in?
• Paris FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D • Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D • Paris FC home split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | CS 3 • Le Havre away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.40 / GA 1.60 | CS 3 • Form edge: minimal separation (Paris FC 1.20 PPG vs Le Havre 1.20 PPG) • xG vs form (Paris FC): Poisson xG of 1.07 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Le Havre): Poisson projects 1.01 xG vs form scoring rate of 0.40 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Under 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~1.5 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.09 (65% Under 2.5 probability) • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~30% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 42% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Paris FC vs Le Havre?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture