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Poisson rates Le Havre at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Auxerre encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Le Havre welcome Auxerre to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

Form Guide

Le Havre — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Le Havre) versus 1.00 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Le Havre: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for Auxerre, with 0 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Le Havre winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Le Havre and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Le Havre in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Auxerre in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 54% versus Auxerre 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 51% | Auxerre 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.06 xG and Auxerre 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.771 / defence 0.760 | Auxerre attack 0.806 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.217. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Le Havre's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Le Havre games / 61 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Le Havre 43% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 25%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Auxerre 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Auxerre's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 40% | Auxerre 40% BTTS from recent games.

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