Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Le Havre welcome Auxerre to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Le Havre) versus 1.00 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Le Havre: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for Auxerre, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Le Havre winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Le Havre and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 54% versus Auxerre 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 51% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.06 xG and Auxerre 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.771 / defence 0.760 | Auxerre attack 0.806 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.217. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Le Havre's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Le Havre games / 61 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 43% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 25%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Auxerre 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Auxerre's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 40% | Auxerre 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 43% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Le Havre 1.06 / Auxerre 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.771 / def 0.760 | Auxerre attack 0.806 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Auxerre xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Auxerre kick off?
Le Havre vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Le Havre 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Le Havre vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Auxerre part of?
Le Havre vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 43% chance of winning, Auxerre a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Le Havre and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Auxerre?
Record (5 meetings): Le Havre 4W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Auxerre in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.77) and Auxerre's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
43%
2.35
32%
3.11
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.81
0.74
Auxerre xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 12.2 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.74 for Auxerre, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 61 games, going 16W 13D 32L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.05 PPG from 61 outings (16W 16D 29L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.00 PPG, Auxerre on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 8W 8D 14L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 0.73 points per game from 30 outings (5W 7D 18L).
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.15 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 16W 13D 32L in their last 61 games (1.00 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 16W 16D 29L in their last 61 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Auxerre away?
Le Havre's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.07 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Le Havre's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Le Havre
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 4, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Auxerre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 57%, Auxerre 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Le Havre) and 53% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 37% of games; Auxerre in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Le Havre's games and 53% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Le Havre's matches and 53% of Auxerre's.
Do Le Havre and Auxerre tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 28, as Le Havre and Auxerre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.06 xG and Auxerre 0.74 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.77 / defence 0.76 against Auxerre attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 43% | Draw 32% | Auxerre 25%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 51%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.00 PPG, Auxerre 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.