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Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stade Brestois 29.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Auxerre beat Stade Brestois 29 3-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.98 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.01 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stade Brestois 29 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.65 / defence 0.98 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.88 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Auxerre 34% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 35%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Stade Brestois 29 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Auxerre's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Auxerre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights