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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Stade Brestois 29 away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Stade Brestois 29 are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Auxerre lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Stade Brestois 29 half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 47% versus Stade Brestois 29 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Stade Brestois 29 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.98 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.645 / defence 0.977 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.882 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.177. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Auxerre games / 60 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Auxerre 34% | Draw 31% | Stade Brestois 29 35%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Stade Brestois 29 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 30% | Stade Brestois 29 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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