Angers vs Auxerre Prediction & Preview

Poisson model rates Angers at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Angers face Auxerre.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Angers welcome Auxerre to Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 6 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Angers — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Angers at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Auxerre stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Auxerre have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Angers) versus 1.00 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 9 H2H matches, Angers have won 3, Auxerre 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2026, ended Angers 3–1 Auxerre — a Angers win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Angers trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Auxerre trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 41% versus Auxerre 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 32% | Auxerre 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.79 xG and Auxerre 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.734 / defence 1.226 | Auxerre attack 1.080 / defence 1.548. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.312. Angers's attack rating of 0.734 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.79. Auxerre's defence rating of 1.548 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Angers's projected output up. Angers's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Auxerre's projected output up. Data: built from Angers's last 44 games and Auxerre's last 44.

Result probabilities: Angers 39% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 37%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.54 | Draw 4.28 | Auxerre 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.74) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Angers's last 10 home games and Auxerre's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Angers 40% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 80% (last 10 away games).

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