Auxerre vs Lille – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Auxerre face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Lille travel to to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre at this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lille are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Auxerre have won 1, Lille 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Lille trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 44% versus Lille 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 47% | Lille 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.02 xG and Lille 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.913 / defence 1.130 | Lille attack 1.102 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Lille's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Auxerre games / 36 Lille games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 21% | Draw 29% | Lille 50%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Lille 2.00. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 40% | Lille 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 21% | Draw 29% | Lille 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Auxerre 1.02 / Lille 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.913 / def 1.130 | Lille attack 1.102 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Lille (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Lille xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Lille kick off?
Auxerre vs Lille is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027.
What competition is Auxerre vs Lille part of?
Auxerre vs Lille is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 21% chance of winning, Lille a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Auxerre and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lille?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 2 | Lille 3W.
What form are Auxerre and Lille in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Lille (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
21%
4.75
29%
3.50
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.68
1.66
Lille xG
4.75
21%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
19%
5.28
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
4%
25.10
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.66 for Lille, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Auxerre have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 8W 10D 18L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lille's form line: 19W 8D 9L from 36 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lille are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Venue Form
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
On the road, Lille have gone 11W 2D 5L from 18 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.56 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Lille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Lille in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 8W 10D 18L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while Lille have gone 19W 8D 9L in their last 36 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.22 PPG; Lille away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lille in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2022, when Lille won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Lille have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lille 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Auxerre 39% BTTS, Lille 28%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 44% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lille in 44%; Auxerre have failed to score in 44% of games; Lille in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Auxerre's recent matches and 28% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 44% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Lille tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Lille in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.