Angers vs Auxerre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Angers welcome Auxerre to Stade Raymond-Kopa. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Angers — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Angers at Stade Raymond-Kopa this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Auxerre's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Angers's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Angers, 3 for Auxerre and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 3–1 with Angers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Auxerre trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 42% versus Auxerre 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Angers 31% | Auxerre 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.48 xG and Auxerre 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.764 / defence 1.060 | Auxerre attack 1.075 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Angers's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Angers games / 36 Auxerre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Angers 35% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 37%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Auxerre 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Angers 30% | Auxerre 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 35% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Angers 1.48 / Auxerre 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.764 / def 1.060 | Auxerre attack 1.075 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Auxerre xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Auxerre kick off?
Angers vs Auxerre is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
Where is Angers vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Auxerre part of?
Angers vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 35% chance of winning, Auxerre a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Angers and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Auxerre?
Record (9 meetings): Angers 3W | Draws 3 | Auxerre 3W.
What form are Angers and Auxerre in?
Angers (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
35%
2.87
28%
3.53
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Angers xG
Total xG
3.00
1.52
Auxerre xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Angers and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Angers and 1.52 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Angers come into this having played 36 games, going 10W 9D 17L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 0.94 PPG from 36 outings (8W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.08 PPG, Auxerre on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Angers's home form reads 6W 5D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (2W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.03 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 10W 9D 17L in their last 36 games (1.08 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 8W 10D 18L in their last 36 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Auxerre away?
Angers's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.28 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Angers's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Angers
3
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Auxerre?
From 9 meetings on record, Angers have won 3, Auxerre have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Auxerre 1-3 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 39%, Auxerre 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Angers and 44% for Auxerre.
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Angers have failed to score in 33% of games; Auxerre in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Angers's recent matches and 50% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Angers's recent games and 44% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Auxerre tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.