Ajaccio 1-3 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 40%, yet in-form Ajaccio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ajaccio vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 4 as Ajaccio welcome Lille to Stade François Coty. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 August 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Ajaccio have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ajaccio have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade François Coty, Ajaccio have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Ajaccio have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Ajaccio trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lille trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 24% versus Lille 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 22% | Lille 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.99 xG and Lille 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.705 / defence 0.889 | Lille attack 0.916 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.523. Ajaccio's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Ajaccio games / 41 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 28% | Draw 32% | Lille 40%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Lille 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ajaccio (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 40% | Lille 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 28% | Draw 32% | Lille 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Ajaccio 0.99 / Lille 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.705 / def 0.889 | Lille attack 0.916 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Lille (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lille xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Lille kick off?
Ajaccio vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Lille?
Ajaccio 1 - 3 Lille.
Where is Ajaccio vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Lille part of?
Ajaccio vs Lille is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 28% chance of winning, Lille a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ajaccio and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Lille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajaccio and Lille in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Lille (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 0.70x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Ajaccio's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
28%
3.61
32%
3.10
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.23
1.24
Lille xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
8%
12.49
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.24 for Lille, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajaccio come into this having played 41 games, going 22W 10D 9L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Ajaccio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.44 PPG from 41 outings (15W 14D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajaccio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Lille — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ajaccio's home form reads 13W 4D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajaccio are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.32 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games; Lille in 63%.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Early Season
Lille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Lille in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 22W 10D 9L in their last 41 games (1.85 PPG), while Lille have gone 15W 14D 12L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Lille away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.15 PPG; Lille away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, Lille in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ajaccio and Lille runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ajaccio
0
Draws
2
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Lille?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 0, Lille have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Lille 3-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 25%, Lille 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ajaccio) and 50% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 65% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ajaccio's recent games and 50% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Lille tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Lille in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Ajaccio 1-3 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.99 xG and Lille 1.24 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lille outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.70 / defence 0.89 against Lille attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 28% | Draw 32% | Lille 40%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 22%, Lille 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Lille's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Lille winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajaccio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.