Lorient 2-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lorient vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Clermont Foot make the trip to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir to face Lorient in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lorient have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lorient have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lorient have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Clermont Foot (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Lorient against 1.40 for Clermont Foot. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lorient lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Lorient winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lorient half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 50% versus Clermont Foot 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 42% | Clermont Foot 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.49 xG and Clermont Foot 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 0.911 / defence 0.991 | Clermont Foot attack 1.079 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.513. Data: 40 Lorient games / 41 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lorient 34% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 40%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Lorient 40% | Clermont Foot 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 34% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Lorient 1.49 / Clermont Foot 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 0.911 / def 0.991 | Clermont Foot attack 1.079 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Clermont Foot xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lorient vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Lorient vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Clermont Foot?
Lorient 2 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Lorient vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What competition is Lorient vs Clermont Foot part of?
Lorient vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 34% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lorient and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Lorient vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Clermont Foot?
Record (2 meetings): Lorient 1W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Lorient and Clermont Foot in?
Lorient (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lorient's attack rating (0.91) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.08x) against Lorient's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
34%
2.92
26%
3.83
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Lorient xG
Total xG
3.11
1.62
Clermont Foot xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Lorient and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lorient and 1.62 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lorient's recent record stands at 9W 13D 18L from 40 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lorient, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 21L across 40 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Lorient against 0.98 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lorient have managed 6W 6D 7L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 5W 3D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lorient are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.02 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lorient and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 9W 13D 18L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 10W 9D 21L in their last 40 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Clermont Foot away?
Lorient's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 1.26 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Lorient or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lorient have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lorient won 5-0 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lorient have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lorient
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Clermont Foot?
From 8 meetings on record, Lorient have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Lorient 3-2 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Clermont Foot?
Lorient have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 47%, Clermont Foot 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Lorient) and 47% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Lorient keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lorient have failed to score in 32% of games; Clermont Foot in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lorient play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lorient's recent matches and 37% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lorient vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Lorient's recent games and 47% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lorient and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Lorient have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lorient defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lorient beat Clermont Foot 2-1 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.49 xG and Clermont Foot 1.62 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Clermont Foot attack 1.08 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 34% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 40%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lorient win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 42%, Clermont Foot 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lorient 1.00 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lorient win broke the near-deadlock. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.