Nantes 3-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 38%, yet in-form Toulouse provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nantes vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Toulouse travel to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to take on Nantes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nantes have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Nantes are significantly better at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Toulouse trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 58% versus Toulouse 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 42% | Toulouse 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.48 xG and Toulouse 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.008 / defence 0.872 | Toulouse attack 1.072 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.521. Data: 41 Nantes games / 3 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 38% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 35%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Toulouse 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nantes at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Toulouse (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nantes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 70% | Toulouse 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 38% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Nantes 1.48 / Toulouse 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.008 / def 0.872 | Toulouse attack 1.072 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Nantes (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Toulouse xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Toulouse kick off?
Nantes vs Toulouse kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Toulouse?
Nantes 3 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Nantes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Toulouse part of?
Nantes vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 38% chance of winning, Toulouse a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nantes and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantes and Toulouse in?
Nantes (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Toulouse (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantes's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.66
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.90
1.42
Toulouse xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
9%
11.02
8%
12.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Nantes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nantes and 1.42 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes's recent record stands at 15W 12D 14L from 41 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 5L across 41 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 11W 5D 4L from 20 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Toulouse's away record stands at 10W 6D 4L across 20 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.15 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 15W 12D 14L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 24W 12D 5L in their last 41 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Toulouse away?
Nantes's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.90 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Nantes or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Toulouse in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and Toulouse runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nantes's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Nantes
4
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Toulouse?
From 7 meetings on record, Nantes have won 2, Toulouse have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Toulouse 2-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Toulouse?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 55%, Toulouse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Nantes) and 50% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Nantes's recent matches and 50% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Nantes's recent games and 50% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Toulouse tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Toulouse 3-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.48 xG and Toulouse 1.42 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nantes beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Toulouse attack 1.07 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 38% | Draw 27% | Toulouse 35%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 42%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Nantes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.