Lille 1-7 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Pierre-Mauroy plays host to Lille versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lille have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lille, 2 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 1–5 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Paris Saint Germain — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 62% and Paris Saint Germain 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 52% | Paris Saint Germain 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.49 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.143 / defence 0.905 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.504 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.459. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.504 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Lille games / 40 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 28% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 48%. Fair-value odds: Lille 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Paris Saint Germain 2.08. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates are neutral: Lille 50% | Paris Saint Germain 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 28% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Lille 1.49 / Paris Saint Germain 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.143 / def 0.905 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.504 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Paris Saint Germain xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Lille 1 - 7 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Lille vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 28% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Lille and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (2 meetings): Lille 0W | Draws 0 | Paris Saint Germain 2W.
What form are Lille and Paris Saint Germain in?
Lille (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lille's attack at 1.14x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.50x) against Lille's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
28%
3.62
24%
4.12
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Lille xG
Total xG
3.47
1.99
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.13
Clean Sheet
14%
7.29
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
4%
26.36
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Lille and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lille and 1.99 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lille come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 14D 11L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.30 PPG from 40 outings (28W 8D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Lille — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lille's home form reads 8W 8D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 1.90 points per game from 20 outings (11W 5D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Lille are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.50 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 15W 14D 11L in their last 40 games (1.48 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 28W 8D 4L in their last 40 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.60 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Lille or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-7 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lille
2
Draws
8
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Paris Saint Germain?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 60%, Paris Saint Germain 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Lille and 65% for Paris Saint Germain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lille's games and 60% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Lille's matches and 65% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Lille and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 1-7 hammering of Lille.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Lille 1-7 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.49 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.99 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-7 for 8 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.99 projection by 5.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.14 / defence 0.91 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.50 / defence 0.84, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 28% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 48%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 52%, Paris Saint Germain 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lille (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.30 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.