📋

Poisson rates VPS at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs SJK encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees SJK travel to Lemonsoft Stadion to take on VPS. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 July 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, VPS stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, VPS have posted 6W 3D 1L at Lemonsoft Stadion — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, SJK have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SJK's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

VPS are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Team Stats

SJK's cumulative Veikkausliiga record this campaign: 3W 5D 6L from 14 matches. They average 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 4 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 14 games (21%). Penalties this season: 0 scored / 1 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

In-Play Data

VPS trading profile (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

SJK trading profile (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 63% and SJK 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 51% | SJK 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 2.28 xG and SJK 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.359 / defence 0.832 | SJK attack 1.121 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.200. VPS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 VPS games / 36 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: VPS 62% | Draw 22% | SJK 16%. Fair-value odds: VPS 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | SJK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to VPS (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, VPS are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: VPS 70% | SJK 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights