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Poisson rates KuPS at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SJK vs KuPS encounter.

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Full Analysis

OmaSp Stadion plays host to SJK versus KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 18 July 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Odds

Bookmakers make KuPS the preferred side — SJK priced at 3.11 (30% implied), Draw at 3.63 (25%), KuPS at 2.07 (45% implied).

Form

SJK (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at OmaSp Stadion, SJK have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

KuPS have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

KuPS's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, KuPS are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SJK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, KuPS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Statistical Overview

SJK's cumulative Veikkausliiga record this campaign: 3W 5D 7L from 15 matches. Attacking returns: 1.2 goals per game; defensive: 1.5 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 2-3 (A). Heaviest defeat: 1-3 (H) / 3-0 (A). Longest draw run: 3 games. Worst losing run: 3 consecutive games. They have failed to score in 5 games this season. 2 clean sheets this season (1 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 3 of 15 games (20%). Penalties this season: 0 scored / 1 missed from 1 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards per game, 0.07 reds per game.

On the season-wide numbers, KuPS show 8W 6D 1L from 15 outings in Veikkausliiga. Attacking returns: 1.8 goals per game; defensive: 1.0 conceded per outing. Biggest win: 3-0 (H) / 0-4 (A). Heaviest defeat: – (H) / 2-0 (A). Their best winning run this season has been 2 consecutive games. Longest draw run: 2 games. They have failed to score in 2 games this season. 4 clean sheets this season (3 at home, 1 away). Scored 2+ goals in 5 of 15 games (33%). Penalties this season: 2 scored / 0 missed from 2 awarded. Most used formation: 4-2-3-1. Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards per game, 0.13 reds per game.

KuPS have been the more prolific side this season at 1.80 goals per game compared to 1.20 for the hosts. KuPS have kept their defensive record in better shape, conceding 1.00 per game versus 1.50 for the hosts. KuPS lead on clean sheets this season (4 vs 2). SJK are averaging significantly more yellow cards per game this season — a risk factor worth noting for card markets. Penalty activity: SJK 0/1 vs KuPS 2/2 this season.

Where They Stand

The standings have KuPS (1st, 30 pts) 9 places above SJK (10th, 14 pts) — a 16-point gap in Veikkausliiga.

On home turf, SJK's Veikkausliiga record reads 2W 2D 3L this term. KuPS have gone 3W 3D 1L on their travels. SJK: Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group). KuPS: Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group).

Trading Data

SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SJK 70% and KuPS 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 70% | KuPS 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.10 xG and KuPS 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.927 / defence 1.133 | KuPS attack 1.264 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.158. KuPS's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. KuPS have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 SJK games / 37 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SJK 24% | Draw 27% | KuPS 49%. Fair-value odds: SJK 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | KuPS 2.04. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 2.07 (fair-implied 45% vs Poisson 49%). Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction. The model sees Over 2.5 as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 52% versus the market's fair-implied 59% (priced at 1.58).

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SJK 60% | KuPS 60% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.50, fair-implied 62%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.

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