Kooteepee 0-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kooteepee at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kooteepee vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Ilves travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 July 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kooteepee's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 games at Arto Tolsa Areena this term (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Ilves have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kooteepee at 1.20 PPG versus Ilves's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Kooteepee have won 0, Ilves 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Ilves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kooteepee trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ilves trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 29% versus Ilves 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kooteepee 29% | Ilves 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 1.07 xG and Ilves 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.935 / defence 1.042 | Ilves attack 0.951 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.059. Data: 14 Kooteepee games / 35 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 35% | Draw 32% | Ilves 33%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Ilves 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kooteepee as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kooteepee offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Kooteepee 29% | Ilves 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jul 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 35% | Draw 32% | Ilves 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Kooteepee 1.07 / Ilves 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.935 / def 1.042 | Ilves attack 0.951 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Kooteepee (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ilves xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs Ilves kick off?
Kooteepee vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Kooteepee 0 - 0 Ilves.
Where is Kooteepee vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Ilves part of?
Kooteepee vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 35% chance of winning, Ilves a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kooteepee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kooteepee and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Ilves?
Record (3 meetings): Kooteepee 0W | Draws 1 | Ilves 2W.
What form are Kooteepee and Ilves in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Ilves (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kooteepee's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kooteepee Win
35%
2.89
32%
3.12
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.12
1.05
Ilves xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.05 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kooteepee come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 4D 6L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kooteepee on 1.14 PPG, Ilves on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kooteepee's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Kooteepee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kooteepee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kooteepee are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kooteepee have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Ilves in 64%.
Defensively: Kooteepee have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and Ilves in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Ilves have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or Ilves away?
Kooteepee's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 1.57 PPG; Ilves away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Kooteepee or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kooteepee have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Ilves in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 July 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ilves have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2025, when Ilves won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kooteepee's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Kooteepee
2
Draws
5
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Ilves?
From 7 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 0, Ilves have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 2 July 2025, when Ilves 2-1 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kooteepee see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 29%, Ilves 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Kooteepee and 14% for Ilves.
On the defensive side: Kooteepee keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Kooteepee have failed to score in 43% of games; Ilves in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Kooteepee's recent matches and 43% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kooteepee vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Kooteepee's recent games and 14% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and Ilves tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Ilves in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kooteepee's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kooteepee and Ilves finished level at 0-0 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.07 xG and Ilves 1.05 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kooteepee fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ilves landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Ilves attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 14/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 35% | Draw 32% | Ilves 33%, with Kooteepee to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 29%, Ilves 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ilves's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kooteepee 1.14 PPG, Ilves 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.