Mariehamn 0-0 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mariehamn at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs Kooteepee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mariehamn host Kooteepee at Wiklöf Holding Arena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 July 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn at Wiklöf Holding Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Mariehamn) versus 1.10 (Kooteepee). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Mariehamn have won 3, Kooteepee 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Kooteepee winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Mariehamn in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Kooteepee in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 69% versus Kooteepee 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 54% | Kooteepee 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.11 xG and Kooteepee 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.840 / defence 1.200 | Kooteepee attack 0.782 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.016. Data: 34 Mariehamn games / 13 Kooteepee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 37% | Draw 34% | Kooteepee 29%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Kooteepee 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mariehamn at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 50% | Kooteepee 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jul 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 37% | Draw 34% | Kooteepee 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Mariehamn 1.11 / Kooteepee 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.840 / def 1.200 | Kooteepee attack 0.782 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Kooteepee xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Kooteepee kick off?
Mariehamn vs Kooteepee kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 1 July 2023 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Kooteepee?
Mariehamn 0 - 0 Kooteepee.
Where is Mariehamn vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Kooteepee part of?
Mariehamn vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 37% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mariehamn and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Kooteepee?
Record (4 meetings): Mariehamn 3W | Draws 0 | Kooteepee 1W.
What form are Mariehamn and Kooteepee in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Kooteepee (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mariehamn's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Kooteepee's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
37%
2.70
34%
2.93
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.07
0.95
Kooteepee xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Mariehamn and 0.95 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 2W 4D 7L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kooteepee's form line: 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 0.77 PPG, Kooteepee on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kooteepee's season.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.92 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kooteepee in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Kooteepee away?
Mariehamn's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 0.83 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or Kooteepee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Kooteepee in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Kooteepee runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Mariehamn won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Mariehamn
3
Draws
1
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Kooteepee?
From 9 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 5, Kooteepee have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Kooteepee 1-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Kooteepee?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 50%, Kooteepee 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Mariehamn and 33% for Kooteepee.
On the defensive side: Kooteepee in 33%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 50% of games; Kooteepee in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Kooteepee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 33% of Kooteepee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Mariehamn's recent games and 33% of Kooteepee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Kooteepee tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mariehamn's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn and Kooteepee finished level at 0-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.11 xG and Kooteepee 0.95 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mariehamn fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kooteepee landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Kooteepee attack 0.78 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 37% | Draw 34% | Kooteepee 29%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 54%, Kooteepee 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Kooteepee's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 0.77 PPG, Kooteepee 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Kooteepee (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.