Ilves 1-1 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SJK at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and SJK meet at Ratinan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 July 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ratinan Stadion, Ilves have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SJK have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SJK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
SJK arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SJK — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 64% versus SJK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 54% | SJK 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 0.70 xG and SJK 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.022 / defence 1.075 | SJK attack 1.118 / defence 0.572. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.061. SJK's defence strength of 0.572 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Ilves games / 34 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 19% | Draw 32% | SJK 49%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 5.26 | Draw 3.12 | SJK 2.04. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 80% | SJK 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jul 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 19% | Draw 32% | SJK 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Ilves 0.70 / SJK 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.022 / def 1.075 | SJK attack 1.118 / def 0.572 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: SJK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.28
SJK xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs SJK kick off?
Ilves vs SJK kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 July 2023 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs SJK?
Ilves 1 - 1 SJK.
Where is Ilves vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs SJK part of?
Ilves vs SJK is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 19% chance of winning, SJK a 49% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Ilves and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and SJK in?
Ilves (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. SJK (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ilves's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (0.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.70. Flip it around — SJK's attack (1.12x) against Ilves's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
19%
5.20
32%
3.13
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Ilves xG
Total xG
1.98
1.28
SJK xG
5.20
19%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
50%
2.02
Win to Nil
5%
18.62
24%
4.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 17.6 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Ilves and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Ilves and 1.28 for SJK, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 12W 12D 15L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SJK's form line: 17W 8D 14L from 39 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Ilves against 1.51 for SJK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
On the road, SJK have gone 6W 3D 10L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.21 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
SJK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and SJK in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while SJK have gone 17W 8D 14L in their last 39 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or SJK away?
Ilves's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.32 PPG; SJK away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Ilves or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, SJK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ilves
6
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 1, SJK have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 68%, SJK 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ilves) and 26% (SJK).
On the defensive side: SJK in 37%; SJK in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play SJK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Ilves's recent matches and 26% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Ilves's recent games and 26% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and SJK tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SJK in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves and SJK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves and SJK finished level at 1-1 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 0.70 xG and SJK 1.28 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against SJK attack 1.12 / defence 0.57, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 19% | Draw 32% | SJK 49%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 54%, SJK 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SJK's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.23 PPG, SJK 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.