Ilves 0-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Ratinan Stadion to face Ilves in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 July 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ilves have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ilves have posted 3W 4D 3L at Ratinan Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Ilves against 0.90 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ilves register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Mariehamn in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ilves, 1 for Mariehamn and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ilves 63% and Mariehamn 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 51% | Mariehamn 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.46 xG and Mariehamn 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.051 / defence 1.055 | Mariehamn attack 1.065 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.071. Data: 36 Ilves games / 36 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 43% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 31%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Mariehamn 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 80% | Mariehamn 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jul 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 43% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Ilves 1.46 / Mariehamn 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.051 / def 1.055 | Mariehamn attack 1.065 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Ilves (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Mariehamn xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Mariehamn kick off?
Ilves vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 July 2023 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Ilves 0 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is Ilves vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Mariehamn part of?
Ilves vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 43% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ilves and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Mariehamn?
Record (3 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 1W.
What form are Ilves and Mariehamn in?
Ilves (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ilves's attack at 1.05x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (1.06x) against Ilves's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.74
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.66
1.20
Mariehamn xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ilves and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Ilves and 1.20 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ilves's recent record stands at 12W 14D 15L from 41 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 19L across 41 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Ilves against 1.07 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 6W 5D 8L from 19 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 5W 3D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ilves are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.32 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Mariehamn in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 12W 14D 15L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Mariehamn away?
Ilves's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.21 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 1-5 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ilves
3
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 5, Mariehamn have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mariehamn 2-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Mariehamn?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Ilves, 63% for Mariehamn — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ilves) and 53% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Ilves's games and 63% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Ilves's recent games and 53% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ilves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves and Mariehamn finished level at 0-0 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.46 xG and Mariehamn 1.20 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ilves fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Mariehamn landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.05 / defence 1.05 against Mariehamn attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 43% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 31%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 51%, Mariehamn 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Mariehamn's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.22 PPG, Mariehamn 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.