Sunderland 0-5 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sunderland face Nottingham Forest.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Nottingham Forest travel to Stadium of Light to take on Sunderland in Premier League (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sunderland have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Sunderland have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nottingham Forest — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nottingham Forest away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sunderland) versus 1.10 (Nottingham Forest). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Sunderland have won 1, Nottingham Forest 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Sunderland 1–0 Nottingham Forest — a Sunderland win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sunderland trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Nottingham Forest trading profile (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 48% versus Nottingham Forest 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 42% | Nottingham Forest 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.15 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.825 / defence 0.915 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.074 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.249. Data: built from Sunderland's last 33 games and Nottingham Forest's last 71.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 32% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 36%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 3.11 | Draw 3.14 | Nottingham Forest 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sunderland 40% (last 10 home games) | Nottingham Forest 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Premier League, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Friday 24 April 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 32% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sunderland 1.15 / Nottingham Forest 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.825 / def 0.915 | Nottingham Forest attack 1.074 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Nottingham Forest xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 24 April 2026 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?
Sunderland 0 - 5 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest is a Premier League fixture (matchday 34) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 32% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sunderland and Nottingham Forest will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (0.82) and Nottingham Forest's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nottingham Forest's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 33 games and Nottingham Forest's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
32%
3.11
32%
3.14
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.38
1.23
Nottingham Forest xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.23 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sunderland come into this having played 71 games, going 27W 23D 21L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Nottingham Forest sit at 1.42 PPG from 71 outings (28W 17D 26L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.46 PPG, Nottingham Forest on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sunderland's home form reads 16W 12D 7L across their last 35 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Nottingham Forest have taken 1.46 points per game from their last 35 away games (15W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sunderland are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.32 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Sunderland (Home) vs Nottingham Forest (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
❓ Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 27W 23D 21L in their last 71 games (1.46 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 28W 17D 26L in their last 71 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Sunderland's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.71 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 24 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sunderland
0
Draws
1
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Nottingham Forest?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 1, Nottingham Forest have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 April 2026: Sunderland 0-5 Nottingham Forest.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 51%, Nottingham Forest 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sunderland) and 63% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Nottingham Forest Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Nottingham Forest matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Sunderland's recent matches and 51% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sunderland and Nottingham Forest matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sunderland's recent games and 63% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Nottingham Forest matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Sunderland's recent matches and 83% of Nottingham Forest's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Sunderland.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Sunderland 0-5 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.15 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.23 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Sunderland fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest outscored their 1.23 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 32% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 36%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 42%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.46 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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