Sunderland 0-1 Brighton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brighton at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sunderland face Brighton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Brighton travel to Stadium of Light to take on Sunderland in Premier League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sunderland stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sunderland at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sunderland are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Brighton — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Brighton away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sunderland 1.10 PPG, Brighton 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Sunderland, 0 for Brighton and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2025, ended Sunderland 0–0 Brighton — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sunderland trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Brighton trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 48% versus Brighton 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 42% | Brighton 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sunderland surrender their half-time lead 39% of the time, while Brighton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 56% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Brighton surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Sunderland recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.18 xG and Brighton 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.909 / defence 0.963 | Brighton attack 0.963 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.303. Data: built from Sunderland's last 29 games and Brighton's last 67.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 34% | Draw 31% | Brighton 35%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.96 | Draw 3.20 | Brighton 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brighton at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brighton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sunderland 60% (last 10 home games) | Brighton 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 34% | Draw 31% | Brighton 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sunderland 1.18 / Brighton 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.909 / def 0.963 | Brighton attack 0.963 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Brighton (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Brighton xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Brighton FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Brighton kick off?
Sunderland vs Brighton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Brighton?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Brighton.
Where is Sunderland vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Brighton part of?
Sunderland vs Brighton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 34% chance of winning, Brighton a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Brighton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sunderland and Brighton will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sunderland vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sunderland's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Brighton's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Brighton's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 29 games and Brighton's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brighton Win
34%
2.96
31%
3.20
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.39
1.21
Brighton xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
9.92
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Brighton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.21 for Brighton, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland's recent record stands at 25W 23D 19L from 67 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Brighton, meanwhile, have gone 25W 23D 19L across 67 games — 1.46 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.46 PPG, Brighton on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 15W 12D 6L from their last 33 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brighton's away record stands at 11W 9D 13L across their last 33 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Brighton are on 1.55 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton in 67%.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Brighton
Current Season
Sunderland (Home) vs Brighton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Current Season
Brighton
Current Season
❓ Sunderland vs Brighton Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Brighton in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 25W 23D 19L in their last 67 games (1.46 PPG), while Brighton have gone 25W 23D 19L in their last 67 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Brighton away?
Sunderland's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.73 PPG; Brighton away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brighton have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Sunderland's record when hosting Brighton specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Sunderland
1
Draws
2
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Brighton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Brighton?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 0, Brighton have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Brighton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Sunderland 0-2 Brighton.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Brighton?
Brighton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Brighton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 47% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 54%, Brighton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Sunderland) and 61% (Brighton).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Brighton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Brighton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sunderland's games and 64% of Brighton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sunderland and Brighton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Sunderland's recent games and 61% of Brighton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Brighton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Sunderland's recent matches and 88% of Brighton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brighton edge out Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brighton beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.18 xG and Brighton 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Brighton attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 34% | Draw 31% | Brighton 35%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 42%, Brighton 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brighton's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.46 PPG, Brighton 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Brighton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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